Bracket Banter 2/16: Big East Update

We finally have some separation at the top of the Big East! How long will it last? Tuesday, league-leading Marquette is in Omaha to take on Creighton in a game that would really help both teams, but especially Marquette, who would have a massive lead in the standings with a win.

Locks

• Marquette: The win over Xavier on Wednesday night was one of those weird close conference wins that you don’t feel great about. Happy to win? Of course, but they shouldn’t have won there, and because X was down about 1/2 of their rotation, they don’t feel good about the win. Nonetheless, the Golden Eagles now control the Big East regular season and are in the driver's seat to get a 3 seed in March. Up next is a trip to Omaha in a game I don’t expect Marquette to win. The Big East top 4 are 30-0 at home, and that includes the Bluejays. It’ll be another GREAT game.

• UConn: UConn has fallen some, but their metrics are still GREAT, and while they’re not fighting for the #1 spot in the bracket come March, they will be a solid seed. They could end up as high as a 2/3, but I believe a 3/4 is the more realistic scenario. I have them as #12 overall for the time being. They do have some solid opportunities to pick up wins in a hurry, and no Q1 games remain at this time.

• Xavier: The Musketeers are in a bit of a rut right now, but if they get Freemantle and Claude back and up to the performance they were at before February, they’re fine. I think they could still end up as a 3 seed, but likely will be on the 4 line. Depending on the committee's decisions, the Freemantle injury could weigh into their seeding. They also have two wins that are bouncing between Q1/2, so X fans should be rooting for both Florida and Cincinnati to improve their NET some. X must take care of the 3 Q3/4 games remaining and get one of two on the road at either Seton Hall or Providence. The end of the year is all about health for the Muskies.

Should be in:

• Creighton: Similar to Xavier, Creighton hopes that the committee will give some leniency on Kalkbrenner being injured. With that, I have the Bluejays as a 5 right now, and they’re charging FAST. To close the season, they have 4 games they should win, and they host Marquette; Creighton could finish 5-0 and make the Big East and Bracket race very close for the top 4 Big East teams. They’re also finally looking like the final 4 projected teams they were in the pre-season.

• Providence: Similar to Rutgers in the Big Ten, I looked over my team scores the other day and noticed that Providence is much lower than I expected. The reason for that is their non-conference season included beating no one above #191 and losing to St. Louis. However, since Big East play started, this team has been rolling. To finish the season, they host Villanova, Xavier, and Seton Hall but also have to travel to UConn and Georgetown. I believe they can get to 4-1 in these games, but 3-2 could also happen. A 4-1 finish would put the Friars pushing toward the 6 line.

Bubble:

• Seton Hall: The Pirates may need to win out to get to the tournament. They have to travel to UConn and Providence and also host Xavier and Villanova. It will be a very interesting end to the year; the good thing is that they have the opportunity for some big-time wins to boost their resume and, hopefully, their metrics.