Bracket Banter: 2/21 Update.

This week, I'm working on some different things, specifically looking in depth at some mid-major conference tournaments and making my predictions for all of the conference tournaments. I scrubbed the AQ section for the first time in several weeks. I have pushed Oral Roberts to the 11 line, I had been considering it, and as long as they stay winning, they remain there for now. That's also a knock on how bad the final two spots are in the bubble picture.

My bracket's here; here are some quick notes:

I'm manually suppressing Kansas, but I don't see how they can stay out of the #1 overall spot; their resume is just too good.

3 line is starting to clear up a bit; it feels like some of the congestion is coming from the bottom of the 4 line to the top of the 5.

Northwestern's rapidly making a case for a 5.

7-10 seed lines are pure chaos, and I'm having trouble sorting it out right now.

- Arkansas metrics may move them up more, but for now, they're the #1 9 for me.

- TX A&M is getting close to moving up a good deal, and they have a great opportunity to move up tonight with a win over Tennessee.

- Kentucky's best two wins (Tennessee) could propel them upward quickly.

Big 12 looks like it gets eight bids at the moment; hard to see either Oklahoma or TTU making enough ground-up to get in.

11 seed line: WVU/Memphis/MISS ST are above the cut line some, but a bad loss would propel them back down.

- WVU may be able to lose out and get in.

- Memphis has to beat anyone not named Houston to get in.

- Miss St is pushing well.

Bubble/Final 3 in:

- Wisconsin: Their In, #44. Metrics are AWFUL, but they're 9-10 in Q1/2 and only have one bad loss, a Q3. 2 more wins are needed, maybe even 3-1, to end the year.

- USC: In, #45. No other Q3/4 games in the regular season. They probably have to beat one of Colorado/Utah; they can lose to Arizona but must beat AZ State.

- OKST: In #46. 8-11 in Q1/2, only 1 Q3 loss; they have solid metrics but a ton of losses; they have to beat TTU on 3/4, which may be enough for them to sneak into the bracket. If they win one in the Big 12 tournament, that should be enough to get in.

- Oregon: Q1/2: 8-12, which is very similar to OKST, and they also have a Q3 loss; I'm effectively using conferences as a tiebreaker, and they have ZERO Q1/2 games left. They need to win out and probably can only lose to AZ/UCLA/USC.

- Oklahoma: Solid metrics, BUT 13-14 isn't good enough, in my opinion. The good: no Q3/4 losses. They're only 7-14 in Q1/2; Tuesday night is effectively an elimination game between TTU and Oklahoma.

- UT State: They have one each of Q3 & Q4 loss, torpedoing their otherwise solid resume. Metrics are good, but they have 0 Q1 wins (0-4) and are 7-1 in Q2. They have one each of a Q1/2/3 game to end the year and likely need all three. There aren't many teams who are 17-2 in Q2/3, and the Aggies must get more solid wins.

- New Mexico: The four-game-losing streak to start February has crushed the Lobos. The good news is that the MWC is strong, and UNM has two more Q1 games, a Q2 and Q4 game to end the year. The game in Boise on Wednesday would likely push them back into the bracket. The 3 Q3 losses and a Q4 loss neutralize their excellent Q1/2 record of 6-3.

- Penn State: I'm not going to be biased and put the Nittany Lions in because I want to see Pickett in the NCAAT, but I want to see Pickett get some run in the NCAAT this year. Their metrics are OK, in the mid-50s on average, and they don't have a Q4 loss but do have a Q3 blemish; They're 6-10 in Q1/2 and own wins over tournament teams Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois(2x); which leaves them very close to the bracket. The # of losses are really starting to pile up. 2-2 in their final four may get them into the frame heading into Selection Sunday.

All of these teams are multiple wins and some help away from the bracket:

- Seton Hall

- Texas Tech

- UNC

- UNT

- Vanderbilt

- Arizona State