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Bracket Banter 2/27

Today's bracket is finally here! The focus for me today was to reseed big movers (UK in particular) and re-evaluate 1-8 lines. I also scrubbed

through the bubble, but I will have more detail about seed lines 9-12 in the next 2 days!

  • There's a legit argument to put UCLA on the 1 line, I left Purdue there, but it's very close.

  • Arizona/K-State are practically interchangeable for me right now.

  • Marquette and Indiana are very close; for now, I'm giving the nod to Indiana just for their top-end wins. IU: Purdue X2, and AT Xavier. Marquette: vs. UCONN, vs. Baylor, and AT Creighton. I believe the committee will value IU's wins over Marquette when they're this close.

  • Overall, #15 & #16 continue to be a completely revolving door in terms of the 4-5 teams who have been there recently. For now, Xavier's #15 because they have one more Q1 and one more Q2 win than Virginia, along with their metrics being slightly better overall. I moved both Iowa State and UVA down after reviewing SDSU's resume, which is now #16 overall.

#18-#23 are all close for me right now.

  • ISU/UVA/SMC are very close.

  • Miami has a better Q1 record and a better road record, along with a better SOR but lower other metrics than TCU, it's close, but I'm leaving Miami over TCU. Northwestern's metrics are much worse than TCU's, and their Quad records are relatively similar, but TCU has a Q4 loss. These two are close, but for now, I'm leaving TCU over Northwestern.

  • Creighton has the metrics to jump up this line, but unfortunately, their 3 Q1 wins just aren't enough. They slot in just behind Northwestern.

  • Maryland's holding steady as the final 6, slowly just climbing up.

  • Kentucky is up to the first #7 seed! I think they could, in theory, jump to the 5 line with some chaos ahead of them.


  • Michigan State > Illinois because of the Q1 win discrepancy and metrics being slightly better for the Spartans.

  • Illinois and Duke remain very close, but I'm higher on the Illini because they have more Q1 wins, and their wins are better. These two are VERY close and will likely flip back and forth for the rest of the next 2 weeks.

  • Metrics are loving Texas A&M, as is most of the country right now, including me. Unfortunately, they're going to be underserved because of two Q4 losses weighing down the resume. They slide in close to Duke/Illinois but remain on the 8 line because of their loss to Miss. State this weekend.

  • I still don't trust where I'm placing Arkansas right now with their metrics, but they slide in right there with Texas A&M. They have elite metrics other than their SOR (37). They fall onto the 8 line but will jump if they can grab another Q1 win or two (they have 2 such opportunities this week).

  • My biggest differentiator when talking Iowa/Providence right now is their Q1/2 records: Prov: 6-8, Iowa: 12-10. More opportunities and more wins = higher seed. Providence is getting hurt for their out-of-conference SOS of 286. This would change with a positive result on Wednesday from Providence at the AMP when they host Xavier.

Bubble Talk: A full breakdown of the bubble to come tomorrow night!!

10 Seeds: FAU/NCST/Pitt/Boise State

  • FAU/PITT/NCST are in pretty good shape right now, just don't take a bad loss, and they should get in.

  • FAU: If they win out, committee precedent would move them closer to a 7-8 seed (CC: Murray ST 2021-22)

  • Pitt/NCST have both taken their share of bad losses this year (NC State this weekend losing big, and Pitt has a Q4 loss) and won't be locked until into the ACC tournament, but I expect both to be in the bracket. Both teams' metrics are bubbly, but NCST does have the edge, putting NCST above Pitt for now.

  • Boise State: Win another Q1, and they should be pretty solidly in, as long as they avoid a bad loss in the opening round of the MWC tournament.

11 Seeds: Memphis/WVU/USC/Miss State

12 Seeds: Wisconsin/AZ State.

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