Bracket Breakdown 2/24

A live look at the bubble floating above this line!

Currently, I have 24 locks, meaning there are currently 26 at-large spots left to lock in.

I could see that number getting much closer or even to 30 this weekend. I know of 5 that I'm considering locking with a win. I'll update this on Monday.

ACC

• Locks:

• UVA, Miami (FL)

• Should Be In:

• Duke: The only way I see this being iffy coming down the stretch is that their best win is Miami/Xavier; neither is better than a 4/5 seed right now and IF they lost their last 3 plus an early L in the ACCT. I know I said I thought two wins would do it last week, but I’m going to wait for one more.

• NC State: 1 more win.

• Bubble:

• Pittsburgh: Pitt has good wins but a Q4 loss as well, so I’m not confident in them yet. Their metrics are also not great; they could use a blowout win or two coming up.

• UNC: They got past 1/2 of their remaining landmines Wednesday; now they MUST get a Q1 win or two down the stretch.

• Clemson: Win their next 3 (at NCST, @UVA, vs. Notre Dame) and a decent run in the ACCT, and maybe it’s enough.

• Wake Forest: Probably AQ or bust.

• Virginia Tech: Bid-steal or bust.

• Big 12:

• Locks:

• Kansas, Texas, K-State, Iowa State, Baylor

• TCU: Welcome! They beat OKST on 2/18, so I’m locking them in.

• Bubble:

• WVU: No bad losses. WVU’s made it without a bad loss at all. 4-10 in Q1 is rough, but I’m betting the committee honors the strength of the B12.

• Oklahoma State: Good metrics, but getting blown out 2 games in a row isn’t a way to solidify your footing in the bracket. They may need to go 1-2 to end the year and pick up 1 more in the B12 tournament.

• Texas Tech: A late surge has brought them back into

• Oklahoma: I think we’re AQ or bust with the Sooners.

** I’m leaning more toward an 8-9 bid Big 12 as opposed to an 8-10 bid Big 12. I don’t think all 3 get in **

• Big 10

• Locks:

• Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State

• Should be in:

• Illinois: Should be in, but they need 1-2 more wins before I’m locking them in. Almost identical to Duke but with better wins.

• Maryland: To start, solid metrics from the terps, no bad losses, but only 3 Q1 wins. 1 more Q1 win could lock them. 2 more for sure.

• Iowa: The Hawkeyes are driving me CRAZY. Could a team with an 11-10 Q1/2 record and a Q4 loss miss the tournament? We’re about to find out. Two losses in a row don’t hurt their already iffy metrics, leaving them moving down in the bracket.

• Bubble:

• Rutgers: I’m writing this as Rutgers tries to lose at home to Michigan; they’re going to fall a decent bit with a loss.

• Wisconsin: The Badgers are another B10 team driving me crazy; currently, my 2nd to last team in. It should be an entertaining finish to the year for the Badgers.

• Penn State: Currently my first team out. Pickett’s carrying them.

• Is it football season yet? Need I say more?

• Michigan: Win out to have a chance.

• Ohio State: AQ.

• Big East:

• Locks

• Marquette, Xavier, UConn, Creighton.

• Should Be In:

• Providence: I would have locked them with a win @ UConn. Their metrics aren’t good, but they have no bad losses and are 6-8 in Q1/2. They likely need to beat two more teams to get to lock status, but one of those may need to be Xavier for me to lock them in.

• Bubble:

• Seton Hall: Win out, or AQ.

• SEC:

• Locks:

• Alabama, Tennessee.

• Should be in:

• Missouri, metrics still hurt seeding, but no bad losses.

• Auburn: just prove they can win, and they stay in.

• Arkansas: GREAT metrics, slowly moving up; they could use a big win to solidify their footing.

• Kentucky: Clicking at the right time? Livingston’s been HUGE for them. They look tournament bound.

• Texas A&M: One of the hottest teams in the country. 7-8 line now.

• Bubble:

• Mississippi State: Staying steady in the L4I. Big game this weekend. They MUST defend the home court.

• Florida: AQ or Bust.

• Pac-12:

• Locks:

• UCLA, Arizona.

• Bubble:

• USC: Last team in; just keep winning.

• Oregon: Gotta win out and get hot in the P-12 Tournament.

• Utah: Likely AQ or bust.

• Arizona State: AQ or bust, most likely.

• Mid-Majors:

• Locks:

• Houston, Gonzaga, SMC, SDSU.

• Bubble:

• FAU: The Owls can’t drop another until the C-USA championship to get an at-large; unfair? Yes, but this is life as a mid-major.

• Boise State: Just keep winning.

• Nevada: Same as Boise, Survive, and Advance.

• Memphis: Just don’t take a loss outside of Houston.

• New Mexico: HUGE chance Saturday night to beat SDSU and maybe jump back to the bracket.

• Utah State: They’re going to be right there but may need some help; they need to be rooting against Texas Tech/Penn St/Michigan Right now, along with all teams in the last 4.

• North Texas: AQ or bust.