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Seed List Update: Super Bowl Sunday

Updated: Feb 14

For Clarification, I use team sheets to score teams based off of weighted wins, NET, KPI, SOR, NCSOS, Q1/2 record, Predictive metric averages, and then the top 10 NET win bonus (1 point added to the final score per win).

In this article, when I group teams in tight groups of 1-2 point differentials, that's basically a Q1B/Q2 win, and the metric impacts to make the difference in teams, so they're very close. Each time I run these numbers, teams shift due to metrics and wins/losses.

1 seeds: There is a solid chance we see some shuffling on this line frequently. Purdue/Bama have a 2-point cushion, and are practically tied at 98.75 for Purdue and 98.65 for Bama (that likely changes tomorrow with metric updates). It would likely take 2 wins/losses and the metric impacts for those two to be caught at this point.

After #2 overall, here are the team scores for the next 5 teams:

Kansas: 98.65 - A great resume, with high losses. They're in great shape.

Houston: 98.19 - Bad conference, great metrics/a ton of wins; I believe they stay as the final one seed unless caught by one of the Pac-12 teams.

Baylor: 96.89: A sneaky good resume is forming here, something to keep an eye on, in my opinion.

Texas: 95.7: A solid resume, another great Big 12 team.

Arizona: 95.34: The losses are starting to mount for the Wildcats.

UCLA: 92.84: I'm lower on the Bruins than most, but they're catching up quickly.

UVA/Iowa State/K-State are within a point of each other, and they should slide in as the first three 3 seeds.

4 seeds: Chaos runs rampant here for the final #3 seed and the four 4 seeds. Right now, Tennessee gets the nod for the final 3, but I don't like their resume, and they may slide down more. Uconn/Indiana/Marquette/Xavier are all within 1 point of each other, and seeding them is going to be very tight. Gonzaga is 2 points behind the 4 line, but 2 points ahead of the next team below them.

5-6 seeds are also very tight after Gonzaga, with Illinois/TCU/SDSU/Creighton/Miami/Iowa all within 2 points of each other.

After the 6 line, there is very little separation between a 7 and 10 seed right now; most of these teams are within 10 points of each other, which means that a Q1A win can move a team several seedlines. ((CC: Northwestern beating Purdue). NW went from a 9 to a 7 today with the win). Providence is a team that there is some concern about based on my numbers. Their metrics took a slight hit again today, and now we're going to see what the Friars can do to get it back on track this year; the problem for Providence is that the lower tier of the Big East is poor, and the top tier is very good, leaving them kind of in the middle.

First and foremost, the bubble is AWFUL.

Team scores and bubble teams starting with the final 8 teams in the bracket and going 12 teams out are listed Below:

38. Providence: 61.98

39. UNC: 61.96

40. Pitt: 58.58

41. Boise State: 58.77

42. Wisconsin: 58.22

43. Miss State: 57.62

44. Oregon: 57.61

45. Memphis: 53.51

46. Kentucky: 53.45

69. Texas A&M: 53.52

70. Oklahoma: 53.5

71 USC: 53.54

72. Clemson: 53.48

73. Seton Hall: 49.49

74. New Mexico: 49.3

75. Michigan: 49.07

76. UT State 48.49

77. Penn State: 47.51

78. Oral Roberts (AQ currently): 46.63

79. Arizona State: 46.03

80: Florida: 45.91

The grouping from #73-80 is extremely tight and could shift with Q2 wins or losses depending on metric impacts. After Florida, Ohio State/Wake Forest/VA Tech/Utah are another 5 or so points down and basically eliminated from contention at this point.

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